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Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index PCEPI

Index 2017=100 • Monthly • Seasonally Adjusted
Source: FRED | Last updated: 2025-09-26 07:43:01-05 | Range: 1959-01-01 → 2025-08-01

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Trend

Momentum

Trend Heat Strip & Seasonality

YoY Heat Strip

≤ −5% Decline > +5% Growth

Seasonality (Average by Month)

What am I looking at?

What it shows: the average level of the series for each calendar month (Jan…Dec) across the full history.

Computation: for each month m, take the mean of all observations whose calendar month = m (all years equally weighted).
Interpretation:
- Not seasonally adjusted (NSA): clear recurring peaks/troughs by month.
- Seasonally adjusted (SA): should be fairly flat (seasonality already removed).
Caveats: uses raw levels, so long-run trend can dominate; best for monthly series. For a relative view, consider a seasonal index (month_mean ÷ overall_mean − 1) or limit to the last N years.

Distribution & Extremes

Histogram of Monthly Changes

Context

Recent Prints

Date	Value	MoM	YoY

Release

Personal Income and Outlays

See full release page

Typical schedule and next expected date may vary; check the release page for official timing.

What this measures & how to read it

BEA Account Code: DPCERG

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if the price of beef rises, shoppers may buy less beef and more chicken.

The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index, as above. The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates.

For more information on the PCE price index, see:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

Tip: focus on multi-month trends to reduce noise from seasonality, one-off shocks, and revisions.