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Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL

Percent Change at Annual Rate • Monthly • Seasonally Adjusted
Source: FRED | Last updated: 2025-09-26 11:41:03-05 | Range: 1977-02-01 → 2025-08-01

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Trend

Momentum

Trend Heat Strip & Seasonality

YoY Heat Strip

≤ −5% Decline > +5% Growth

Seasonality (Average by Month)

What am I looking at?

What it shows: the average level of the series for each calendar month (Jan…Dec) across the full history.

Computation: for each month m, take the mean of all observations whose calendar month = m (all years equally weighted).
Interpretation:
- Not seasonally adjusted (NSA): clear recurring peaks/troughs by month.
- Seasonally adjusted (SA): should be fairly flat (seasonality already removed).
Caveats: uses raw levels, so long-run trend can dominate; best for monthly series. For a relative view, consider a seasonal index (month_mean ÷ overall_mean − 1) or limit to the last N years.

Distribution & Extremes

Histogram of Monthly Changes

Context

Recent Prints

Date	Value	MoM	YoY

Release

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

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Typical schedule and next expected date may vary; check the release page for official timing.

What this measures & how to read it

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

Tip: focus on multi-month trends to reduce noise from seasonality, one-off shocks, and revisions.